Net Migration Plummets: Labour’s Silence

Net migration is plummeting. Why can’t Labour say so? | Heather Stewart

London, November 30, 2025

The United Kingdom has experienced a substantial drop in net migration in the year ending June 2025, with figures falling to approximately 204,000—representing a two-thirds reduction from the previous year’s 649,000. This sharp decline reflects ongoing shifts in immigration and emigration patterns amid post-pandemic and post-Brexit dynamics.

Significant Decline in Net Migration
Data reveals that net migration, the difference between immigration and emigration, has sharply decreased from a historic peak of 906,000 in the year ending June 2023 to 204,000 by mid-2025. The preceding year, 2024, already showed a notable decline to 431,000, indicating a consistent downward trajectory in migration inflows and outflows.

Immigration and Emigration Figures
Provisional estimates place immigration at 898,000 for the year ending June 2025, down from 1,299,000 a year earlier. Meanwhile, emigration increased to 693,000 from 650,000. This simultaneous reduction in arrivals and rise in departures contribute directly to the sharp fall in net migration.

Drivers Behind the Decline: Non-EU+ Migration
The reduction is largely driven by changes among non-EU+ nationals, whose net migration fell to 383,000 in this period. A significant portion of those emigrating—about 143,000 out of 286,000 non-EU+ departures—were individuals who originally entered the UK on study-related visas. This points to a pronounced outflow of international students concluding their education and returning abroad. Such shifts in the student population significantly affect overall non-EU+ migration levels.

EU+ and British National Migration Trends
Meanwhile, net migration of EU+ nationals remains negative, presently estimated at around -70,000, continuing the downward trend in migration from EU countries since the 2016 Brexit referendum. British nationals are also leaving the UK in numbers comparable to non-EU+ emigration, with estimates showing approximately 252,000 British departures.

Contextualizing the Current Trends
These trends underscore a transformed UK migration landscape shaped by evolving immigration policy, Brexit consequences, and post-pandemic mobility patterns. Historically, a typical annual net migration in the 2010s ranged between 200,000 and 300,000, suggesting that while current figures have tumbled from recent peaks, they are beginning to align closer with long-term averages.

The data reflects the complexities of migration flows, including the pivotal role of education-related visas and wider geopolitical influences affecting EU and British nationals. For policymakers and economic stakeholders, these developments highlight important considerations for workforce planning, demographic projections, and migration governance in the coming years.