London, December 13, 2025
Australia continues to approve major fossil fuel expansions amid updated 2035 emissions targets, raising concerns over the nation’s readiness for a post-fossil fuel future and its alignment with global climate commitments. Experts and Pacific leaders alike are urging stronger action as Australia prepares to co-host COP31 next year.
Ongoing Fossil Fuel Expansions Contradict Emissions Goals
Despite revising its climate ambitions with a 62-70% emissions reduction target by 2035 compared to 2005 levels, Australia lacks concrete plans to phase out coal and gas production, use, or exports. This gap undermines the nation’s ability to achieve net zero by 2050 and the temperature goals set out in the Paris Agreement.
Recent approvals underscore this disconnect. In May 2025, the government granted a 40-year extension for Woodside’s North West Shelf LNG Plant, allowing operations through to 2070. This move effectively triples the plant’s emissions potential, extending well beyond Australia’s net zero timeline and raising the country’s rank as a significant global fossil fuel exporter.
Current Climate Targets and Policy Shortcomings
Australia’s official 2030 goal of reducing emissions by 43% from 2005 levels is broadly considered on track by experts. However, the updated but as yet unsubmitted 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) increase to a 62-70% reduction still falls short of the 57-76% needed to maintain a 1.5°C global temperature rise limit.
Policy mechanisms such as the Safeguard Mechanism regulate about 31% of industrial emissions with stricter baselines but do not encompass a phase-out of coal or limit fossil fuel exports. Similarly, renewable energy efforts cover about 35% of emissions from the power sector, supported by agencies like ARENA and the CEFC, but slow grid modernization hampers rapid decarbonization.
Localized success stories, like the Australian Capital Territory’s 100% renewable electricity target and planned gas phase-out, highlight what more comprehensive national policies could achieve. Yet nationally, fossil fuel subsidies persist, and new coal or gas projects continue to receive approval.
Regional and Expert Criticism Intensifies
Australia’s fossil fuel stance has drawn sharp criticism, notably from Pacific island leaders at COP30 in November 2025, who labeled the country’s targets as “climate hypocrisy.” These nations, vulnerable to climate change impacts, have joined the Fossil Free Pacific movement pressing for a swift end to fossil fuel dependence.
Experts recommend an urgent cessation of fossil fuel subsidies, a halt to new fossil fuel projects, and a clear timeline to phase out coal by 2030 and gas by the mid-2030s. More ambitious national targets—such as a 75% emissions cut by 2030 and net zero by 2035—would better align Australia with global climate goals.
The government’s inflated projections of carbon sequestration through land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) have also been criticized for artificially lessening near-term reduction obligations and undermining credibility.
Looking Ahead to COP31
As Australia prepares to co-host COP31 in 2026, it faces mounting pressure to demonstrate climate leadership. Meeting these demands will require more than announced targets; it necessitates decisive policies to phase out fossil fuels, restructure energy systems, and curb exports that contribute disproportionately to global emissions.
Conducting a meaningful transition away from fossil fuels is pivotal not just for Australia’s international reputation but also for securing a sustainable and resilient future for its citizens and the Pacific region most threatened by climate change.