New York, December 10, 2025
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has announced plans to permit Nvidia to resume sales of advanced AI chips to China if he wins the 2025 presidential election, aiming to boost American technology companies and leverage trade relations. This campaign promise contrasts with current U.S. export restrictions and signals a potential shift in semiconductor policy.
Trump’s Policy Proposal
Trump’s statement is a campaign commitment rather than an active policy change. He indicated that allowing Nvidia to supply its most advanced AI chips to China would take effect only if he returns to the White House in 2025. The move is framed as a strategy to enhance American tech firms’ revenues and increase U.S. negotiating power in trade and geopolitical matters with China.
Current U.S. Export Controls
Under President Biden’s administration, the U.S. government has imposed strict export controls restricting the sale of advanced AI chips, such as Nvidia’s H100, H200, and upcoming Blackwell series, to China. These measures aim to decelerate China’s advanced AI and military technologies by limiting access to cutting-edge semiconductors and relevant equipment. Nvidia has responded by creating China-specific versions of its chips—like H20 and L20—that comply with these restrictions but offer reduced performance compared to global models.
Trump’s Rationale
Trump criticizes the existing restrictions for hurting American companies more than China. He argues these controls reduce Nvidia’s potential revenue and enable Chinese firms to develop domestic chip alternatives more rapidly. His approach promotes a transactional policy whereby the U.S. would permit advanced chip sales in exchange for reciprocal trade or geopolitical concessions, rejecting the Biden administration’s longer-term containment strategy.
Implications for Nvidia and U.S. Technology
China represents a significant market for Nvidia’s AI and data center chips. Current restrictions have cost Nvidia billions in possible revenue losses. A policy reversal under a Trump administration could substantially increase Nvidia’s sales and positively affect its stock, but it would also raise concerns about enabling China’s progress in AI, including military and surveillance capabilities.
Global and Geopolitical Impact
A relaxation of export controls could accelerate Chinese AI development, particularly in sensitive areas such as autonomous weaponry and cyber operations. It could signal a major departure from the U.S.’s current “small yard, high fence” export strategy, potentially undermining long-term U.S. technological dominance. Other semiconductor companies like AMD and Intel, alongside equipment suppliers such as ASML and Applied Materials, might pressure for similar market access. Meanwhile, U.S. allies aligned with current export restrictions—Japan, the Netherlands, and South Korea—could face diplomatic pressure to reconsider their policies.
Looking Ahead
At present, Biden’s administration is expected to maintain or strengthen current limits on AI chip exports, especially as China advances its own semiconductor technologies. Trump’s proposed policy shift remains contingent on his electoral success in 2025 and subsequent executive actions. This prospect injects uncertainty into the global AI and semiconductor markets, influencing strategic planning among investors, technology companies, and governments worldwide.